Zafar Bangash
That there will be retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hizbullah’s senior most military commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh is not in doubt.
The two terrorist strikes were carried out on July 30 and 31 respectively.
Zionist Israel has escalated the war dangerously by carrying out strikes on two capital cities: South Beirut (Lebanon), and Tehran (Islamic Republic).
Both attacks were clear violations of the respective countries’ sovereignty.
Former Israeli General Amiram Levin described Israel’s attack on Haniyeh as “madness”.
He added that the “security forces should’ve strongly opposed” the move.
Iran’s representative to the UN, Ami Saied Iravani notified the world body that Tehran would retaliate under Chapter 51 of the UN Charter because it was subjected to aggression.
Israel’s crime was compounded by the fact that Ismail Haniyeh, a guest of the Islamic Republic, was martyred on its soil.
He had just attended the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian.
Such terrorist acts cannot be allowed to go unpunished.
What form it would take is difficult to speculate but it is certain that it would be much more severe than Hizbullah and Iran’s previous retaliatory strikes.
To understand how seriously Islamic Iran has taken these zionist terrorist attacks, a high-level meeting was held in Tehran on August 1, a day after Haniyeh’s assassination.
The meeting was presided by the Rahbar, Imam Seyyed Ali Khamenei and attended by Iran’s top political, security and intelligence officials.
Also attending were senior representatives of Hizbullah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Ansarallah and Hashd al-Sha‘bi.
All these movements have been involved to varying degrees against the zionist occupation and their western enablers and financiers.
Western regimes led by the US, Britain and France had an opportunity to distance themselves from Israel’s criminal acts.
Instead, they blocked even a statement in the Security Council that called for condemnation of Israel’s heinous crime.
It was proposed by Russia and backed by China, Iran and Algeria.
The western regimes have demonstrated, yet again, that they are partners in crime of the illegitimate zionist entity.
During the Security Council session, Iran’s envoy Amir Saied Iravani made clear that Tehran “reserves its inherent right to self-defence in accordance with international law”.
He stressed that “the responsibility of the United States as a strategic ally and main supporter of the Israeli regime in the region cannot be overlooked in this horrific crime. This act could not [have] occurred without the authorization and intelligence support of the US.”
Benjamin Netanyahu is like a trapped rat and wants to escalate to the point where the US would be compelled to intervene directly in the war to somehow save his thick hide.
Whatever Netanyahu’s reasons, it is certain that Islamic Iran and its allies cannot allow these twin terrorist acts to go unpunished.
It is quite possible that Israeli political and military officials may also be targeted in any forthcoming retaliatory strikes.
The thinking among leaders of the Resistance Axis is that unless Israel is made to pay a sufficiently high price for its criminal acts, it will not be deterred.
Given Netanyahu’s mindset, he might escalate the conflict even further, in which case he would only hasten the end of the zionist entity.
Let us consider some possible scenarios.
It is more than likely that a retaliatory strike would come from multiple fronts.
Hizbullah will play a major role in this struggle because it shares a border with the zionist entity.
Further, it possesses a huge stockpile of missiles and drones and has highly-trained and motivated fighters that number more than 100,000.
For comparison, in 2006 Hizbullah possessed 15,000 missiles and rockets, most of them short-range.
Since then, Hizbullah’s arsenal has not only grown in numbers but also in sophistication.
In 2019, the United States Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) estimated that Hizbullah possessed 150,000 short and long-range missiles.
It is reasonable to assume that Hizbullah’s arsenal has only grown in the five-years since.
In analyzing Hizbullah’s military capabilities, Hudson Institute’s Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu listed the resistance group's missile and heavy rocket arsenal, drone warfare capabilities, anti-tank and anti-ship missiles and, air defenses.
He concluded that Israel’s war against the Lebanese resistance movement is “unwinnable”.
Hudson, a staunchly pro-Israel American think-tank, is no sympathizer of Iran or Hizbullah.
Besides, any retaliatory strikes against the zionist entity will not be confined to Lebanon.
On April 13/14, when Iran launched drones and missiles at Israeli military sites, some of them got through its missile defence systems.
In the best-case scenario, Israel's Iron Dome system can only intercept 70% of missiles or projectiles.
Thus, if 100 missiles are fired, at best 70 of them will be intercepted; 30 missiles will still get through.
Those are enough to cause significant damage.
Between them, Iran, Hizbullah, Ansarallah, Hashd al Sha‘bi, Hamas and Palestine Islamic Jihad can fire thousands of missiles at once.
Israel cannot even imagine the havoc these will wreak.
Nor is the ground invasion of Lebanon a feasible option.
The Israeli army is already exhausted, depleted and demoralized because of its genocidal war in Gaza.
It has also lost much equipment, especially tanks.
Both Israeli military commanders and political leaders have admitted these losses.
Add to that Hizbullah’s vast network of tunnels in the southern Lebanese mountains and Israeli soldiers will be turned into mince-meat if they invaded.
Hizbullah leader Seyyed Hasan Nasrallah has announced that should Israel make the mistake of attacking Lebanon, Hizbullah fighters will invade the Galilee.
It will be the beginning of the end of the zionist entity.
There is little the US can do in such a scenario, regardless of the number of ships and other weapons of aggression it deploys in the Mediterranean.
