Crescent International
The phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 13 reaffirmed what many outside the western establishment have long understood: the war in Ukraine is a geopolitical confrontation between the US and Russia, fought on Ukrainian territory.
When analysts presented this view in 2022, western media outlets dismissed them as conspiracy theorists and “Putin propagandists”.
Yet, those who grasped the true nature of the conflict remained undeterred.
They continued to provide a realistic assessment, challenging narratives pushed by western elites and their media outlets.
If we are to accept the spins of the “reputable” western media, Washington and its allies were forced into negotiations by Russia, whose army fought with shovels and salvaged washing machine parts for Moscow’s weapons industry.
Western reporting has often exaggerated Russian casualties while downplaying Moscow’s strategic gains.
Despite claims that Russia struggled to take “insignificant” parts of Ukraine, the current reality on the ground has exposed these misrepresentations.
Washington is now forced to acknowledge Russia’s geopolitical interests in Europe.
More significantly, this shift comes at the expense of America’s European allies, who find themselves increasingly sidelined by the Trump regime.
European ruling caste is now slowly realizing the cost of blindly following American jingoism.
While US-Russia negotiations signal de-escalation, it is too simplistic to predict that the war will end quickly or what the settlement will look like.
However, there are certain aspects cemented in place at the moment.
Moscow sees the evolving global order as favorable, reducing its urgency to negotiate.
Meanwhile, Washington and its European surrogates face mounting domestic political, social and economic pressures, pushing them to seek a resolution.
At the same time, Moscow’s continued military and geopolitical advances expose the west’s ambition to subjugate Russia as little more than wishful thinking.
Even pro-western Russian politician, Grigory Yavlinsky, recently conceded that, militarily, politically and economically, the situation favors Putin’s government.
While the terms of any eventual US-Russia agreement remain unclear, one fact is undeniable: the war has shattered the west’s claim to global dominance.
Just as the US invasion of Iraq in 1991 cemented American hegemony, the Ukraine conflict has established multipolarity as today’s geopolitical reality.
A pressing question remains: how will US-Russia negotiations impact West Asia?
In a multipolar world, developments in one conflict zone do not necessarily dictate outcomes elsewhere. However, some constants persist.
Russia will not side with the west against China; doing so would be a geopolitical disaster for Moscow.
The Kremlin will also continue arming and economically supporting Islamic Iran, recognizing that a weakened Iran would destabilize the Caucasus and Central Asia, a risk Russia cannot afford.
Without Iran, Moscow also loses leverage over Türkiye, the US and Saudi Arabia in West Asia.
For Russia, freezing the Ukraine war allows it to consolidate influence in Africa, West Asia, and Southeast Asia.
To achieve this, Moscow seeks reliable and principled regional allies.
Those who stood by Russia during its geopolitical struggle are likely to become key strategic partners.
Thus, Iran-Russia partnership is only going to increase.
In contrast, western regimes have a long history of abandoning their surrogates, from Ferdinand Marcos to Saddam Hussein all the way to Hosni Mubarak.
As the world shifts towards multipolarity, the Ukraine war’s implications stretch beyond Europe.
Russia’s ability to withstand an indirect war with NATO signals a profound power shift—one that western policymakers, whether they admit it or not, will have to learn to accept.
