Ayman Ahmed
Egyptians will go to the “polls” on December 10 to elect a president. The result is a foregone conclusion. General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi who led the military coup against the first-ever democratically elected government in Egypt’s history, will win a third term.
Realizing the farcical nature of the elections, a number of political parties have decided to endorse el-Sisi. If you can’t beat them, join them, seems to be the prevailing mood. It also avoids the risk of being thrown in jail or worse, for daring to challenge the military strongman.
Even the Salafi party, Al-Nour Party, is backing Sisi. The Salafis vehemently opposed Dr Mohamed Morsi when he ran for president in 2012. During his one year in office, the Salafis did everything to undermine Morsi before his overthrow by Sisi in July 2013.
Egypt’s National Elections Authority (NEA) announced the final list of candidates on November 8. In addition to Sisi, there are three other candidates allowed to run. They are Farid Zahran, head of the opposition Social Democratic Party, Abdel-Sanad Yamama, head of the country’s oldest liberal party Al-Wafd, and Hazem Omar, head of the People’s Republican Party.
Another, more colourful candidate, Ahmed Tantawy, failed to secure the requisite 25,000 supporter signatures from Egypt’s 15 governorates. He managed only 14,000 because the police and civil bureaucracy led a relentless campaign to harass him and his supporters.
Egypt’s constitution requires candidates to secure endorsements from at least 20 MPs from the House of Representatives or 25,000 citizens from at least 15 governorates, with a minimum of 1,000 endorsements from each governorate. While Tantawy failed in his bid and had to withdraw from the race, that did not end his travails. He will now go to criminal court on charges of “circulating election-related papers without official authorisation”.
The state instruments are all coopted to support Sisi’s candidacy to ensure his “success”. This includes impeding the campaign of those opposing him.
Tantawy had gone into self-imposed exile in Lebanon. He returned to Egypt in May to run for president. Human rights groups have denounced the harassment of Tantawy and his supporters as politically motivated. Even his mobile phone was hacked multiple times.
Why was he targeted so viciously? He has opposed normalisation with Israel, a major sin in Egypt, as well as continued deals with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Tantawy attributes frequent resort to the IMF as the direct result of Sisi’s gross mismanagement of the economy.
He called for wealth redistribution and tax increases. His biggest and unforgivable sin was his vocal opposition to the 2019 constitutional amendments. These paved the way for Sisi to run for a third term.
Tantawy’s views resonated with the young people that make up 60 percent of Egypt’s population. Sisi unleashed the media dogs and pro-regime MPs against him.
His ordeal is also a warning to other candidates to not criticize Sisi too vocally otherwise they will find themselves behind bars. Life in Egypt’s prisons is horrible.
The Sisi regime has locked up tens of thousands of political prisoners in horrible conditions where torture is rampant. Many political prisoners have died under torture or through denial of medications. Former president Mohamed Morsi was also the victim of lack of medical attention. He died in a cage in court on June 17, 2019 after suffering a massive heart attack. UN experts called his death “arbitrary killing”.
The number of political prisoners in Egypt is believed to be 65,000. In the 10-year period that Sisi has been in power, there has been a massive surge in the building of prisons. Naturally, 65,000 political prisoners need a lot of cells, even if they are cramped and over-crowded! It is the only growth industry in Egypt after corruption.
The regime’s skewed priorities can be gleaned from the following basic facts. There is desperate shortage of houses. Many people are forced to live in cemeteries. Sisi, however, would rather build prisons than build homes. He has squandered the country’s wealth on grandiose projects that are not geared to alleviating poverty.
The Egyptian pound has lost 50 percent of its value against the US dollar and the cost of living is soaring. One estimate puts inflation at an unsustainable 88 percent. Egypt’s debt has soared. The regime is forced to borrow on the international market to pay merely for the interest on debt. This is similar to the situation in Pakistan, another basket-case and grossly mismanaged by the military. In the latter’s case, however, it operates from behind the scenes. Both regimes are also totally subservient to the US.
When Sisi issued the statement that Egyptians should accept the prospect of going hungry as the price of the country’s success, people were appalled. Sisi and his big-bellied generals indulge in over-eating but call on people to go hungry. On another occasion he called on people to eat chicken feet. People have also been scratching their heads about the country’s progress.
In a detailed and well-documented article in January 2023, Yehia Hamed, Egypt’s former minister of investment during Morsi’s short-lived government, outlined the desperate state of the economy. He also outlined how Sisi’s grandiose plans have directly contributed to Egypt’s dire economic straits.
It would be worthwhile to quote some figures from his article. He wrote:
“Egypt’s total debt has risen by 93 percent in just five years and debt service is expected to increase by 62 percent from the financial year 2020/2021 to 2023/2024.
“In the 2022/2023 budget, debt accounted for nearly 50 percent of expenditure.
“In other words, Egypt is borrowing just to survive and the only way to meet those debt obligations is to borrow more.”
There are other harrowing details. Pointing to the two traditional sources of revenue, Hamed identifies the Suez Canal and foreign tourism. “Both have been hard hit, first by instability, then by the Covid-19 pandemic and now the Ukraine war.” While the regime cannot be blamed for the pandemic or the Ukraine war, it does bear responsibility for managing the economy.
But as Hamed points out, “instead of growing the private sector—with the potential attendant effects on real GDP—the government chose to consolidate all economic activity in the hands of the military. Today the military operates in every sector of Egyptian economic life, including the media, entertainment, food, hospitality, construction and essentially everything else.”
This, according to Hamed, means “Egypt isn’t open for business. In fact, the private sector is on life support, if not already effectively dead.” Sisi and his military cohorts have focused their energies on mega projects that have no impact on economic growth.
“The new “Administrative Capital City” rising in the desert has siphoned $55 billion from the economy. A needless expansion of the Suez Canal siphoned another $9 billion with hardly an increase in revenues.”
This is what happens when men in uniform usurp political power and begin to make decisions in areas where they have no expertise. In fact, they have no clue about economic development. The result is mass poverty and suffering.
Pity the Egyptian people.
