Crescent International
While the restoration of Iranian-Saudi state to state relations poses no concrete tactical threat to the US, it undermines Washington’s broader regional strategy.
Iran-Saudi rapprochement does not mean it is an alliance.
This development, however, has overturned the only regional political set-up in which American policy makers know how to operate.
For decades US officials formulated their policies, both overt and covert, on the artificially constructed regional dynamic of Sunni versus Shia narrative.
This became so embedded within the US state machinery that with time American officials started to believe their own lies.
Chinese mediated rapprochement between Islamic Iran and the Saudi regime not only reduces Washington’s ability to use the sectarian card, it also robs the US of the ability to camouflage its imperialist ambitions within a legitimate geopolitical framework.
This further dents America’s already eroded credibility as a responsible and competent state entity.
The US will, therefore, work hard to try and undermine the Iran-Saudi rapprochement.
America’s greatest ability to act as regional spoiler lies in the fact that it has a well-established military and intelligence presence in GCC countries.
This makes the GCC regimes legally and politically liable for any hostile US action against Islamic Iran.
The GCC regimes can curtail America’s hostile actions in the region.
They do not, however, have the ability to completely stop the US from engaging in such acts.
The aim of such hostile American actions is, of course, to provoke conflict between Islamic Iran and the GCC regimes.
While the above remains the key US leverage in disrupting regional calm, it will be difficult to continue at the level that was hitherto the norm.
In the past, the White House’s regional destabilization efforts relied heavily on the Wahhabi factor.
This card was successfully utilised primarily via Saudi state religious institutions and circles.
As Riyadh is currently interested in regional calm and stability, it is unlikely to provide the Americans the “religious” camouflage in stoking instability once again.
Although Washington’s nudge towards the so-called Israeli-Saudi normalization appears aimed at provoking a strong reaction from Islamic Iran, it is unlikely to succeed.
Tehran understands that zionist Israel and the Saudi regime have cooperated in various arenas for decades, so public normalization will not change anything substantially.
Also, when Islamic Iran and apartheid Israel eventually engage in direct military conflict, the Saudis will have no formal military or political role in it.
Despite massive western support, the Saudis failed to achieve any significant gains even against dirt-poor Yemen, either militarily or politically, so no one takes the Saudis’ potential hostility against Iran seriously.
As long as Tehran and Riyadh address their grievances via diplomatic and political channels, it is unlikely that the Americans will be able to disrupt regional calm.
Past hostile actions also point to Washington’s inability to provoke a major crisis between important players in the region.
These developments reflect a permanent shift in global geopolitics.
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