Crescent International
Empires in decline become recklessly vicious.
This historic reality offers the most realistic explanation for Donald Trump’s erratic trade policies against Canada, Mexico and China.
Given this reality, Trump’s lack of strategy and statecraft presents a unique opportunity for developing and developed economies to diversify their trade and assert their state sovereignty.
America under Trump is synonymous with uncertainty; a phenomenon businesses despise.
Even if Washington does not fully implement the threatened tariffs, instability in domestic US politics and Trump’s track record as an ignoramus indicate that relying on America’s common sense and stability over the next four years is a risky proposition.
The US political setup has lost all pretenses of being a functioning state system.
The most obvious example of this was provided when Joe Biden pardoned his son Hunter, after pledging for months not to do so and let the law take its course.
Today, the US does not differ from any of the dictatorial regimes it has propped up around the world for decades.
Many state and non-state institutions are trying to come up with a rationale behind Trump’s tariff policies and explain his sudden retreat from them.
The simple reality is that there is no clear cut rationale behind Trump’s bombastic declarations that in any case have little substance.
For now, some western pundits—unable to grasp the reality that America has regressed as a political system—are explaining Trump’s buffoonery solely through the lens of the “Madman Theory”.
This explanation, however, will soon become obsolete as other countries begin to confront the US directly, both politically and economically.
One can see a glimpse of this shifting reality with China’s decision to launch a legal investigation against Google.
On multiple occasions Crescent International has pointed out that anyone trying to apply normative political and international relations theories in understanding Trump’s next four years will likely miss the mark.
There will be no consistent framework in understanding and analyzing US policies as they are all based on Trump’s personal feelings and mood at any given moment.
His mood swings are legendary.
He is notorious for turning on a dime, making no distinction between friend and foe.
Trump’s economic wars on Canada and Mexico should be a wake-up call for all countries that placing one’s political and economic eggs in one basket is an unwise policy.
It should be noted that there are economic reasons and some benefits behind tariffs.
Tariffs, however, only bring tangible economic results if applied as part of a long-term and methodologically applied strategic policy.
For example, between 1960s and 1980s, South Korea used high tariffs and import restrictions to protect its nascent industries while strategically investing in export-oriented growth.
The government shielded companies like Samsung, Hyundai, and LG from foreign competition in the early stages, allowing them to become global giants today.
China imposed tariffs and non-tariff barriers on foreign companies while promoting its own industries, particularly in high-tech sectors such as semiconductors, telecommunications (Huawei), and electric vehicles.
Unlike Trump’s tariffs, China’s approach was gradual and aligned with its broader economic goals.
It leveraged tariffs to regulate market access while simultaneously negotiating trade deals that secured strategic advantages.
In Trump’s case, strategy is entirely absent from his thinking or approach.
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