Mustafa Dhia Allah
With King Abdullah virtually incapacitated—and according to some reports in a coma—the battle for succession has heated up. The appointment of Mohammad bin Nayef gives clue that he might become the king of Saudi Arabia in the near future.
The contours of the Saudi succession plan are beginning to fall into place. While there is nothing certain about how decisions are made in the opaque kingdom, some outlines can be discerned from recent developments.
In a dramatic move, Muhammad bin Nayef, son of the former and now late Nayef bin Abdul Aziz, was appointed interior minister replacing his uncle Prince Ahmed bin Abdul Aziz who had been at the job a mere five months. The state media said Muhammad was appointed after the current interior minister Prince Ahmed asked to be “relieved” from the position. “Prince Ahmed is relieved of his position as interior minister at his own request and Prince Muhammad bin Nayef is appointed,” according to a royal decree carried by the Saudi Press Agency on November 5.
Informed observers do not find the official line convincing. Many believe Ahmed was pushed aside because he had started making wholesale changes in the interior ministry as well as failed to prepare for the day when extremist elements from Saudi Arabia currently fighting in Syria will return home. The prospect of another al-Qaeda type blowback from the days of the Afghan war in the 1980s haunts the Saudi ruling family. It cannot afford another Osama bin Laden type figure erupting in their midst.
For many years, Muhammad bin Nayef had served as his father’s assistant minister. He was elevated to the position of deputy interior minister after his uncle, Ahmed bin Abdul Aziz succeeded Nayef who suddenly dropped dead on June 21, 2012. Nayef had been interior minister since 1975 and had come to be identified with security and internal control in the kingdom. Before his sudden death, he had been elevated to the position of Crown Prince in October 2011 when then Crown Prince Sultan suffering from multiple ailments died in New York. In any case, Sultan was 86 years old and his shelf life had expired. When Nayef was appointed Crown Prince, it was assumed that at 79, he would outlast King Abdullah who was nearing 88. Nayef’s sudden death in Spain — the Saudi royals do not stay at home even in old age — sent the kingdom into panic mode.
It is widely known that Abdullah is in extremely poor health. A team of doctors and nurses constantly hover around him. It is not clear what they would do when his time is up but for those people that live for this dunya, they can afford to indulge in such practices. Besides, they have the money to pay for medical personnel, not so much to save him — they cannot — but to reassure him that they are there just in case. Let us be realistic: how long does he have to live beyond his 88 years? Following Nayef’s death last June, Prince Salman was made the Crown Prince but he is also 76 and suffers from Alzheimer’s disease. Would he also beat Abdullah to the grave? The possibilities of senior Saudis dropping dead are endless. Strictly speaking, Salman should not have been appointed Crown Prince but family politics took precedence over common sense.
The elevation of Prince Muhammad, who is in his early-50s, as interior minister points to the new direction in the Saudi succession battle. The interior portfolio is the most important in the kingdom. Some would say it is even more important than the court since the king is virtually at the mercy of the interior ministry that controls the kingdom’s security matters. The ministry controls the police, the massively funded intelligence apparatus, numerous Special Forces units and elite counter-terrorism squads, border protection forces, critical installation protection forces and the religious police, known as the mutawwa. Immigration and ports are also controlled by the interior ministry. The question that arises is: what areas of internal affairs does the ministry not control? Prince Muhammad is now the head of all these and more.
It puts him in a commanding position vis-à-vis other claimants to the title of future king of Saudi Arabia. There is no shortage of ambitious princes even if most do not have the competence to run a grocery store, much less a state that has become far more complex than a mere collection of tribes kept on the sidelines through bribes. Incompetence has seldom proved a barrier to assuming the kingdom’s highest office. The other ambitious persons include deputy defence minister Khalid bin Sultan, commander of the Saudi National Guard Mutaib bin Abdullah, Saudi intelligence chief Bandar bin Sultan, governor of Makkah Province Khalid bin Faisal, governor of the Eastern Province Mohammad bin Fahd, business tycoon al-Waleed bin Talal, and former minister of state Abdul-Aziz bin Fahd.
It is interesting to note that all these ambitious Saudi princes have been cultivating close links with the Americans. For instance, Khalid bin Faisal has been in contact with the Americans to convince them that he could bring change “along an American path.” Bandar’s links with the Bush family are so deep that many people refer to him as Bandar Bush. He is also closely aligned with the American neocons but whether these would be enough to put him in the top spot is difficult to predict. Further, Bandar is handicapped by the fact that his mother was a concubine. While no fault of his, in the Saudi family, pedigree matters. Muhammad bin Nayef’s elevation to the position of interior minister could not have come about without American approval. This gives him a clear edge.
He is known to be ambitious and lately, he has dominated news in the kingdom relating to threats from al-Qaeda and other groups. He is seen by Western countries as having spearheaded Saudi efforts to crush al-Qaeda in the kingdom. It was his brutal crackdown of al-Qaeda that led to his being targeted for assassination. He survived with minor injuries but it elevated his status among the pleasure-loving royals that seldom confront any challenges in life, much less to their person.
After Nayef’s death last June, it was assumed that the person who becomes interior minister would be well placed to become the future king. This was based on the assumption that the king is very old; and the new Crown Prince, Salman is suffering from Alzheimer’s and is also very old, so whether he follows or precedes Abdullah to the grave would leave a vacuum at the top. With Ahmed bin Abdul Aziz’s elevation to the interior portfolio, it immediately led to speculation that he was a strong candidate for becoming the future king. His poor performance in the interior ministry has now virtually eliminated his chances of rising up to the top.
There had been criticism of his handling of the internal situation both of the restive Eastern Province where peaceful protests have been brutally suppressed, and the flood of al-Qaeda members from Saudi Arabia flocking into Syria. Blowback from al-Qaeda operations in Syria can be expected in the kingdom; the US will not escape unscathed either. Washington has been unhappy over these developments that may have contributed to Ahmed’s departure. Additionally, there is speculation that Prince Muhammad was manipulating the situation inside the kingdom to manoeuvre himself into a favourable position. Palace intrigue is not uncommon although the Saudis are good at keeping the lid on such affairs. Recent leaks have upset the royals and blame had fallen on Ahmed’s shoulders as interior minister.
The real power struggle — and it will be brutal — will be between the following princes: Mutaib bin Abdullah, Khalid bin Faisal, Bandar bin Sultan and Muhammad bin Nayef. Of these, Bandar, the illegitimate son of the late Prince Sultan, is the most ruthless and ambitious. He heads Saudi Arabia’s important and well-funded intelligence apparatus but he falls under Muhammad’s ministry. Thus, Bandar serves as assistant to Muhammad bin Nayef, something the foul-mouthed Bandar would not be happy with. Of all the competing princes, Muhammad bin Nayef wields the most power and influence by virtue of his control of so many forces.
While King Abdullah set up an allegiance council in 2006 to decide the issue of succession, it has remained largely dormant. In the past, the next brother in line automatically succeeded upon the death of the king but senior members of the family are now so old and many in such poor health that they have had to be bypassed. It is the next generation that causes so many jitters among the royals as well as Saudi watchers. There are many unanswered questions such as the loyalty of various factions and forces and how they will play out once the king and his crown prince leave for the other side that has given rise to so much anxiety.
Saudi Arabia has entered a very turbulent period in its history. King Abdullah must be a truly worried man and must wonder at his bad luck for having inherited so much mess from his brothers. Never before has a Saudi king faced such daunting prospects especially with his younger brothers falling dead before the king himself and the regional situation in so much flux. As the saying goes, uneasy lies the head that wears a crown.
The royal court has not issued any statement about the king’s condition. What should it say: that the monarch is in a vegetative state?
The king is on life support while the kingdom is on autopilot for now.
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