Tahir Mahmoud
Two decades ago, news headlines featuring mass protests about socio-economic issues usually related to developing countries. Not anymore.
Crumbling western political global “order” seems to have brought with it many socio- economic problems for regimes that arrogantly boasted about their economic grandeur over the past two decades. This was often garnered at the expense of others with deadly consequences for the victims.
For several weeks now, mass protests in the EU member states led by farmers have rattled European regimes. While these protests have been assessed and approached primarily as localized, which they admittedly are, they will also have significant global implications.
One of the reasons behind the protests is the high cost of energy which the farmers are unable to afford. This is due to the EU’s self-inflicted damage after it instituted energy sanctions on Russia and cut off imports of Russian oil and gas. This aspect inadvertently gives Russia leverage over the European street and society.
Moscow naturally took advantage of this situation by using its media platforms to remind European farmers why they are paying more for energy. It is not because Russia stopped supplying cheap energy products to the EU. Instead, it was the rulers in EU countries who ended purchase of Russian energy products. This was done under US pressure using Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine as excuse.
Although, the EU is still forced to buy Russian energy products indirectly, it costs a lot more now because of increased logistical add-ons.
Russia, however, will not be the key beneficiary of the European farmers’ protests. Its agriculture industry is likely to continue to remain under pressure globally.
Although Russia is among the top five countries with the most fertile agricultural land, it has a relatively small population compared to its land size (Russia has the largest landmass in the world). China will be the key beneficiary. Beijing’s proximity to Russia and its huge population give it a distinct advantage.
Russia’s strategic and multidimensional standoff with NATO regimes is acquiring a global and prolonged character. In this environment, China-Russia cooperation will only continue to grow. This will include the agriculture sector as well as many other sectors of the economy.
The rise in political and social influence of the west’s geopolitical adversaries is probably the least of the EU politicians’ worries over which they need not lose any sleep. As the war in Ukraine drags on, the EU regimes continue to pursue a policy of bleeding Russia in Ukraine. The economic policies formulated to allow Ukraine to withstand its war with Russia are creating intra-EU tensions.
For instance, on February 20, Polish farmers blockaded roads along the Ukrainian border by throwing Ukrainian grain on railroad tracks. Protests and objections against Ukrainian agriculture products being sold in the European countries is another political headache for the EU with significant internal ramifications.
With economic decline faced by many EU countries, regressive fascist political forces are on the rise throughout the continent. It appears that Europe is heading for a repeat of its historical cycle where economic downturn brings out the worst of the continental peoples’ behaviour.
With all the financial and administrative resources, EU institutions have failed to carry out intellectual reform in their supposedly highly educated societies. This is not because of inability or mismanagement. The EU ruling establishment needs the semi-fascist intellectual framework’s presence to a certain degree for its foreign policy objectives. The chickens may finally be coming home to roost.
Economic problems along with the rise of neo-fascist groups across Europe are a dangerous mix for a continent which produced Leopold II, Adolf Hitler and neo-colonialism. As western regimes attempt to provoke trouble inside Russia, Moscow is likely to reciprocate. Thus, this deadly cocktail is a big political burden in the making.
Among the three entities (EU, Russia and China) as outlined in the overview, only China enjoys relative internal stability, economic advancement, and safety from external destabilization. This reality will likely allow Beijing to position itself as a fairly stable agricultural hub for this essential industry.
By expanding its agricultural presence in the Russian market and slowly converting itself into a regional and global agriculture center, both the EU and Russia will have a vested interest in making sure that China remains stable and prosperous. This will inadvertently push businesses in the EU towards China, which in turn will upset the US because the latter is obsessed with destabilizing China.
There will soon come a time when at least some business and political elites in the EU will realize that toeing Washington’s imperialist foreign policy is too costly. For now, however, it appears that the US has a firm grip over EU countries but events such as strikes and farmers’ protests will worsen an already deteriorating situation.
This will give rise to anti-American sentiment in Europe. If the anti-US trend gains a critical mass following in the EU and Moscow offers it a significant carrot, it will be hard for EU politicians to justify to their populations as to why they are not opting out of American jingoism.
